Progress is usually considered a good thing. Mostly it is, but sometimes it can be a double edged sword. Of course there’s the usual examples, like nuclear power, or the combustion engine, but maybe there’s other, less obvious implications we don’t consider.

Sometimes we can get caught up in the thrill of a new innovation without thinking the consequences through.

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Take cars for instance. We’re all waiting for the day when we have decent electric cars without emissions, or maybe they’ll be running on hydrogen cells emitting only water. But electric cars will almost certainly be quieter, how will this affect road safety? Will more pedestrians be run over since they can’t hear a car coming?

And as for cars that emit water vapour – that’s actually THE most efficient global warming agent. Do we know for sure we won’t just make too many clouds?

Then there’s the internet. We’re already wondering if the ‘connected’ western world isn’t in danger of becoming a culture of lonely, socially inept individuals.  Still, most would agree that getting the Third World connected will be a force for good. Not only will dictatorships find it harder to maintain control when they lose the monopoly on information, in theory it  should be great for people in isolated areas to feel more connected to the rest of the world.

BUT, I read about some disquieting research on Nigerians who were using the web for the first time. Many actually felt more negative and helpless about their lives. Imagine a blind person who has no concept that there is anything wrong with  them being told that other people can see….

Many felt poorer than ever after seeing all the riches elsewhere. And the richness of experiences elsewhere made some feel lonelier and more isolated than ever.

Then there’s getting to exited about what you’ve developed, without considering if anyone actually wants it. Videphones have been possible for a long time, but people simply did not want them. They were just too invasive. It took mobile phones and the feeling of control we have over them before we got comfortable with it.

I bet someone somwhere is intent on holographic phones. Imagine always being on show, people who phone first thing seeing you in you’re PJ’s, seeing that spot, or your bedhead. Will we be even less inclined to actually go out and see people when we’re ‘with them’ artificially? Will anyone want that?

Who knows, but this is part of the reason behind me, as a planner, wanting to get more involved in product development, maybe that’s where I can be most useful. Or maybe it’s developing those added value services that help people avoid any negative effects of what we’re selling them. I don’t know.

But I do know that progress for progress’ sake can be more subtly complicated than we often acknowledge. 

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4 responses to “Stop, look listen”

  1. Will Avatar

    Damn right NP.
    It’s why I couldn’t describe to Timo’s view at the PSFK conference – part of me is too much of a cynic/too plugged into the world view that not all future gazing/futurology is a good thing.
    I can imagine, given my nature, I’d feel a wee bit nervous if I had to do his job (though it would be largely very cool).

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  2. Rob @ Cynic Avatar

    You need to read this … http://robcampbell.wordpress.com/2007/06/08/use-it-or-lose-it … because it follows on from what you are saying and I want to hear your view as this is something we’re taking very, very seriously.

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  3. np Avatar

    Righto sir. I have done so.

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  4. Rob Mortimer Avatar

    Very good point about video phones.
    Though I also think its partly to do with lack of knowledge. In a sense that, you know you can use it on your mobile… but you dont if your friends can.

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